BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 heads to Sao Paulo?

Formula 1 heads to the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace as the Sao Paulo Grand Prix hosts Round 21 of the championship, but what do the odds tell us about who might succeed during the weekend ahead? Read on to find out...

Odds are provided by F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Leading into Mexico, Max Verstappen dominated the conversation after mounting a sensational comeback that started at Monza. However, championship rival Lando Norris took momentum in the Mexican capital, sealing victory by 30.324 seconds to pull one point clear in the title race.

Returning to Verstappen, the Dutchman is the in-form driver coming into Interlagos, with a 1.60 average in his past five races. He also delivered one of the drives of his life on his last visit to this track, taking a remarkable win after starting in 17th place on the grid.

The third piece to the title race triad is Oscar Piastri who is now second in the championship, having last prevailed in the Netherlands. The Australian has battled since Baku, missing out on a top-three result in four consecutive appearances.

The odds for a podium finish

Ferrari have endured a tricky season, but Charles Leclerc gave the squad a boost after podium finishes in Austin and Mexico City. The Monegasque has formed part of the post-race champagne celebrations on seven occasions in 2025.

A regular rival of Leclerc’s is George Russell, who has struggled to keep up with the frontrunners since his triumph in Singapore, but he returns to a happy hunting ground this week. The Briton clinched his debut win here in 2022, and his team have been victorious in Sao Paulo on three occasions since 2019.

Pierre Gasly is a double rostrum finisher in Brazil across his last five visits. Last year, the Alpine racer navigated his way from 13th on the grid to claim a place on the platform. However, the Frenchman’s car is not up to par this season, and he’ll likely need a miracle to finish inside the top three this time.

Over in the rookie corner, Kimi Antonelli is exhibiting glimpses of the form he delivered earlier in the campaign. The Italian only has the one podium to his name from Canada, but he’s crossed the line inside the top six in three of his past four races.

The odds for a top-six finish

Another youngster to impress of late is Ollie Bearman. The Haas driver has only two top-six finishes behind him this year, including a career-best fourth place last time out.

On the opposite end of the experience spectrum, we find Lewis Hamilton quietly plotting his next move after a tough season that has yielded no podiums and nine top-sixes.

Williams driver Alex Albon leads the midfield teams in top-six finishes with five under his belt in 2025. The Thai racer last mingled with the top six at Zandvoort, and lines up in Brazil with four consecutive returns outside of the top 10.

Double World Champion Fernando Alonso has experienced mixed fortunes this term, having finished one race inside the first six spots. That was in Belgium and, since then, he’s registered three top-10s and two DNFs. Sticking with experienced drivers, Nico Hulkenberg also carries two top-sixes with him into Brazil, but the last one came back at Silverstone.

The odds for a top-10 finish

This weekend’s hometown hero Gabriel Bortoleto offers value for a top-10 return, earning his fifth of the year in Mexico. The Brazilian averages 12.80 in his last five races, claiming two top-10s, and his best performance this year came in Hungary, when he crossed the line sixth.

Another rookie, Isack Hadjar, finds himself with eight top-10 drives this year, his last one arriving in Azerbaijan. On the other side of the Racing Bulls garage, Liam Lawson has struggled for consistency this season. The Kiwi produced a career-best fifth-place drive in Baku, but has since failed to finish inside the top 10 and didn’t complete the Grand Prix in the previous round.

Over at Red Bull, Yuki Tsunoda is starting to find his groove. The Japanese driver has found the top 10 in 50% of his past six races, and averages 9.80 in the ultimate five appearances.

Finally, Carlos Sainz departs the pits at Interlagos with eight top-10s behind him, but the Spaniard has registered two consecutive DNFs coming into this race.

The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying

Lando Norris stopped the clock fastest for a fifth time this season in Mexico, marking his first pole position since Belgium. This weekend Norris returns to a track where he claimed the front row grid position 12 months prior, though ultimately the Briton went on to end the race in sixth.

A three-time winner in Sao Paulo, Max Verstappen enters the event as the leading fastest qualifier on the grid, notching up seven pole positions so far in 2025. The four-time World Champion has found himself starting the Grand Prix in first place twice at this venue.

Oscar Piastri has five poles to date this year, with his last success arriving in the Netherlands. The McLaren driver has fallen outside of the top six Qualifying spots in three of his last four outings after a dominant early and middle sector of the season.

The odds for the winning team

Mercedes touch down in Sao Paulo with an exceptional record in the last 10 editions of the race, having been the winning team 60% of the time since 2014. Since George Russell’s success here in 2022, however, the squad have handed over the reins to Red Bull.

Max Verstappen has powered the Milton Keynes-based outfit to two consecutive wins at Interlagos, and their recent form suggests a hat-trick is a strong possibility.

McLaren have been hunting their maiden victory in Sao Paulo since 2012, when Lewis Hamilton was still racing for the team and Jenson Button took the win. The closest they’ve come to a win since was when Lando Norris finished runner-up to Verstappen in the 2023 edition.

What McLaren lacks in recent success in Brazil is made up for with their hefty win tally this term; Norris’ success in Mexico City gifted the papaya squad their 13th victory of the campaign. Ferrari, meanwhile, enjoyed a successful visit to this circuit in 2017 thanks to Sebastian Vettel, but the Italian outfit have failed to replicate that triumph since.

The odds for the Sprint

The penultimate Sprint on the calendar takes shape on Saturday, and Max Verstappen is the clear frontrunner. The Dutchman has snatched the first prize in the last two Sprints, and found himself on the podium in three out of four contests so far in 2025.

A familiar rival to the Red Bull man is Oscar Piastri, who secured three runner-ups in the first three Sprints of the season before failing to finish last time out at the Circuit of The Americas.

The Australian’s team mate, Lando Norris, fared well in Miami and Belgium, where he won and finished third respectively. However, he ended eighth in China and failed to get his car across the line in the United States Sprint.

Lewis Hamilton is the only other Sprint winner this season, taking the crown in Shanghai. The Ferrari driver backed it up with a third-place finish in Miami before settling for 15th in Belgium.